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October 18, 2026

After the worst years, what came next?

Every losing year for the S&P 500 since 1928, and the year after. Plus Europe, the UK, Japan and Korea.

From 1928 to 2025, the S&P 500 finished 30 of 98 years in the red (2 flat). So what happened the year after a losing year? It went up 21 out of 30 times (70%), with a median next-year return of +16.8%. That's actually higher than the median for all years (+11.6%).

S&P 500 calendar-year returns (1928–2025)

1928: +37.9%1929: −11.9%1930: −28.5%1931: −47.1%1932: −14.8%1933: +44.1%1934: −4.7%1935: +41.4%1936: +27.9%1937: −38.6%1938: +24.6%1939: −5.2%1940: −15.1%1941: −17.9%1942: +12.4%1943: +19.4%1944: +13.8%1945: +30.7%1946: −11.9%1947: 0.0%1948: −0.7%1949: +10.5%1950: +21.7%1951: +16.4%1952: +11.8%1953: −6.6%1954: +45.0%1955: +26.4%1956: +2.6%1957: −14.3%1958: +38.1%1959: +8.5%1960: −3.0%1961: +23.1%1962: −11.8%1963: +18.9%1964: +13.0%1965: +9.1%1966: −13.1%1967: +20.1%1968: +7.7%1969: −11.4%1970: +0.1%1971: +10.8%1972: +15.6%1973: −17.4%1974: −29.7%1975: +31.6%1976: +19.1%1977: −11.5%1978: +1.1%1979: +12.3%1980: +25.8%1981: −9.7%1982: +14.8%1983: +17.3%1984: +1.4%1985: +26.3%1986: +14.6%1987: +2.0%1988: +12.4%1989: +27.3%1990: −6.6%1991: +26.3%1992: +4.5%1993: +7.1%1994: −1.5%1995: +34.1%1996: +20.3%1997: +31.0%1998: +26.7%1999: +19.5%2000: −10.1%2001: −13.0%2002: −23.4%2003: +26.4%2004: +9.0%2005: +3.0%2006: +13.6%2007: +3.5%2008: −38.5%2009: +23.4%2010: +12.8%2011: 0.0%2012: +13.4%2013: +29.6%2014: +11.4%2015: −0.7%2016: +9.5%2017: +19.4%2018: −6.2%2019: +28.9%2020: +16.3%2021: +26.9%2022: −19.4%2023: +24.2%2024: +23.3%2025: +16.4%1930194019501960197019801990200020102020

Solid bars: the five worst years

The five worst years, and what followed

YearThat yearNext yearNext 3 years
1931−47.1%−14.8%+17.0%
1937−38.6%+24.6%+0.3%
2008−38.5%+23.4%+39.2%
1974−29.7%+31.6%+38.7%
1930−28.5%−47.1%−35.0%

In 3 of these 5 years, the market rose right away the next year. The exceptions were 1930 and 1931, when it fell again. Over the next three years, 4 of 5 ended higher.

Did other markets do the same?

IndexYearsDown yearsUp the next yearMedian next year
S&P 5001928–202530/9821/30 (70%)+16.8%
Euro Stoxx 502008–20256/185/6 (83%)+19.9%
DAX1988–202510/388/10 (80%)+22.1%
FTSE 1001985–202511/418/11 (73%)+13.6%
Nikkei 2251966–202520/6011/20 (55%)+8.0%
KOSPI1997–20259/299/9 (100%)+29.2%

Shorter histories have fewer down years to count (Euro Stoxx 50 data starts in 2008), so small samples can swing the percentages a lot.

The exception: a very long wait

Rebounds weren't always quick. After the Nikkei 225 fell −38.7% in 1990, it took 34 years to close a year above its 1989 level. "What falls comes back" is a story about averages, not a rule for every market or every era.

How we calculated this

  • Yearly return = last close of the prior year to last close of the year. The current year is left out.
  • These are price indexes, so dividends are not included (returns would be higher with them). DAX includes reinvested dividends.
  • Not adjusted for inflation.
  • Source: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, KOSPI (Yahoo Finance)

Our take

I was in the market on Aug. 5, 2024, when the KOSPI fell 8.77% in a single day. I kept asking myself whether my money was about to go to zero, and whether I'd been wrong all along. I still bought a little, as I'd planned to. What stuck with me: an opportunity is useless if you don't have cash when it shows up, so saving is part of being ready.

I've had the opposite experience too. I bought Chinese tech stocks thinking they'd hit bottom, watched them fall close to 70%, and ended up a long-term holder by accident. The numbers above are averages, and nothing guarantees your own account follows the average. Since then my goal has been steady base hits, not one big home run.

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Data as of October 27, 2026. Past returns don't guarantee future results. For information only, not investment advice.